Was it ever possible that Mr Mugabe will just roll over and surrender power to Mr Tsvagairai of the M.D.C.? Only if you are not African you may think so. Or maybe if you are a big dreamer! This is Africa and we Africans are used to tin gods masquerading as leaders. The continent is littered with despots and recovering from addiction to power. Mr Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is a tin god and will never relinquish power unless violently removed from power as he effectively employed against the British. I am not advocating such tactics against him but merely placing in context why the M.D.C. has failed so far in staging a power takeover.
Mr Morgan Tsvangirai and his M.D.C. supporters lost that opportunity when they accepted a runoff because the first one, according to the government was a statistical tie. When is 48% vs 43% a statistical tie? Even if you accept this diluted version from the government of Mugabe, the man himself admitted that he lost by 5 percentage points!
The moment Mr Mugabe suspended the prompt releasing of the election results earlier this year, you knew something was stewing.
This is classic Mugabe Playbook:
1) Create an impasse.
2) Ask for a re-vote.
3) Brutalize and intimidate your opponents into re-contesting against you again.
4) Have them drop out.
5) Bingo! DECLARE VICTORY!!!!!
Zimbabwe, MDC and Mr Morgan Tsvangirai lost this second balloting the moment he flew to South Africa hoping to enlist the support of regional power from Mr Thabo Mbeki in forcing Mr Mugabe to cede power. A wrong strategy it has proven in the past and will always prove. Mr Mugabe understands power and has mastered this game.
Most likely Mr Mugabe will die in power and thereafter the vacuum will unleash a power struggle among his supporters. Power play, palace intrigues and mistrusts, may be his legacy. Violence that African leaders have been laboring to avoid will most likely visit Zimbabwe after Mr Mugabe. Not if, but when.
Mr Mugabe is simply buying time and the world knows it. Unfortunately, Mr Mbeki lacked the courage and logic to arrange a graceful exit for this pathetic tin god. I am not sure if anyone ever had a chance to begin with.